I am not sure American democracy will be around in 2024/2025.

You might scoff, laugh, or think I am crazy, but I urge you to take a close look at what is going on and where that might lead over the next 2 election cycles. I used to think this was a very small possibility and now it looks like a very large possibility.

What is happening right now:

• The Republican party has fully embraced the lie that the 2020 election was somehow stolen or had high levels of fraud. Despite losing every lawsuit, despite having zero evidence… their entire party is embracing this lie and the cult of Trump. Many know this is an utter lie as they are not in the Trump cult, but they know that in order to stay in power they need the Trump cult so they do and say nothing. And, publicly they embrace it in fundraising and rallies.
• Republican-led states have passed a myriad of voter restrictions designed to reduce votes from people who vote Democrat. A lot of lawsuits are pending, but we are fast approaching deadlines that lock in current laws so elections can be run.
• Far-right extreme Republicans who believe this big lie are running for local political offices that control local and state elections and voting certifications on a local level. Nobody pays attention to local elections like these, they are usually boring, but we are seeing Qanon and other crazy right-wing conspiracists replacing “moderate” Republicans because those Republicans certified the 2020 election.
• More and more far-right extreme Republicans are running against so-called “moderate” Republicans in Congressional races (with more expected). These are true believers who see Trump as a savior who are replacing Republicans they deem not ideologically pure. Many so-called “moderate” Republicans are retiring because they know they have no chance.
• We are uncovering more and more information on how the Trump administration tried to commit a coup in a myriad of ways from using the DOJ to pressure the election, putting pressure on Pence to not certify the election, to putting pressure on state election officials to do something illegal and finding him votes. It didn’t work but the next election cycles are putting people in state and local power who will do these things.

Some members of the Republican party know they are riding a tiger and they don’t know how to get off.  They have spent the last 50 years crafting a Republican voter base using fear over substance, and Trump is the result. They can’t stand up to the lies they created because they would lose their base, lose their job, and lose power. And, now they are being replaced by true believers who believe all the lies they have been told for the last 50 years.

Let’s just imagine where this goes… 

2022…

In the 2022 midterms, the Republicans take control of the House (likely). Politicians who echo the lie that the 2020 election was stolen win offices to oversee state and local elections (inevitable as they don’t have anyone to run against in high Gerrymandered distracts). This sets them up to do what Trump tried to do in 2020 by having them certify the election for him in spite of the votes.

2024…

Trump runs in 2024 and loses both the popular and electoral votes.

But, on the local and state level, Republicans in charge of elections overturn actual election results and declare him the winner (this is what he tried to do in 2020 but was rebuffed at the state/local level and who he is replacing with his cult members). The Republican-controlled House certifies his win despite the clear fraud at the local and state level. Then Kamela Harris as VP rightly refuses to certify the election given the fraud. Republicans decry a communist dictatorship takeover and a stolen election and hundreds of thousands of cultists march on D.C. in a bigger and better-planned coup. January 6th was just a warmup. We watch on TV as our country dissolves into violence and chaos, at worst case a civil war, at best case our system is shaken to the care while the global economy goes into a recession/depression as a result.

Here is a good breakdown by Bill Maher that paints a similar picture…

The Democratic party meanwhile is blind to all of this.

I get tired of saying this year after year but the Democrat party does not understand the Republicans stopped governing decades ago. They aren’t even playing the same game. They still think it is politics as normal and can’t even get a basic voting rights bill passed because a single member is worried about losing his next election. Fuck your next election, if you don’t do more to safeguard democracy the USA won’t be a democracy in 3 years. If that means losing your stupid election so be it.

But Ben, this could never happen in the USA… here are some fun survey results of Republicans:

• 66% of Republicans said the 2020 election was not legitimate.
• 30% of Republicans believe that Donald Trump “has been secretly fighting a group of child sex traffickers that include prominent Democrats and Hollywood elites” (Qanon insanity).
• 56% of Republicans support the use of force as a way to arrest the decline of the “traditional” American way of life.
• 39% of Republicans went further agreeing that “if elected leaders will not protect America, the people must do it themselves even if it requires taking violent actions.” The above poll was done after January 6th when you would expect people to be even more opposed to the idea of violence.
• 52% of Trump voters agreed that Red states should secede from the union to form their own country. 

And, here are recent results from Iowa showing a really disturbing result given this traitor tried to become an American dictator:

• Trump has a 53% favorability rating among all Iowans.
• Trump has a 91% favorability rating among Iowa Republicans.
• Among Iowa independents, Trump has a 48% favorability rating (to 49% unfavorability rating).

“Interesting” times.

I had a weird moment recently and I am still processing it…

I realized that cops do not have to shoot people, you can just arrest them later.

Why does American society feel that it is acceptable to shoot someone who stole something and is running away?

• Or shoot someone who is mentally ill?
• Or, shoot someone who you THINK has a knife?
• Or, shoot someone who is walking away from you?
• Or, shoot someone because of the way they make you FEEL?
• Or, shoot someone because they are not following directions?

Why did this feel like such a “duh” moment to me and what does that say about me and the culture/society I grew up within?

Why not just wait, and just calmly arrest them the next day? 

They are going to turn themselves in. Or, worst case you take a drive and pick them up at one of the five places they might be living. What is the need to escalate a situation that needs de-escalation?

Or better yet, see how long you can talk to them and de-escalate bad situations. So what if someone is holding a knife. Just let them hold it as long as they are doing nothing and calmly talk to them. You don’t have to have 9 guns drawn on them, scream at them, and act like they are holding a machine gun and wearing a necklace of ears.

I understand the need for state-sanctioned violence if someone is threatening violence against others, has a weapon, and is acting on it. That rarely seems to apply…

I do not understand why the fuck police are shooting people (mostly black and people of color)? If you feel threatened easily you shouldn’t be a cop. If your response to feeling threatened is violence, you shouldn’t be a cop. If you have a massive temper you shouldn’t be a cop. If you can’t handle being made fun of you shouldn’t be a cop. If you do not have sang froid you shouldn’t be a cop. It is like we hire a bunch of want to be Rambos, give them no training in de-escalation, outfit them like a military barbie doll, tell them every one is out to kill them, and send them out into the world. I think we would have better results with a police department staffed by ex-child soldiers.

I especially hate when people tell me “they didn’t listen to the cops” or “they should do what the cop says”. Should someone be shot because they don’t want to listen to cops Should someone be strangled to death while in handcuffs because they do not want to do what cops say?

Fuck that. I think the only reason you should be shot is if you have a weapon and are about to actively hurt someone. So, stop fucking killing people, especially black people.

Was the January 6th attack on the capital the start or the end?

It is hard for me to believe it is the end. Why?

1. You have millions and millions of radicalized right-wing extremists. They are not going to magically disappear overnight. Nobody has deprogrammed them and they are utterly divorced from reality. And, they continue to be further radicalized by right-wing propaganda sources such as Breitbart, Newsmax, and a long list of websites you have never heard of.

2. Their coup/ethos/violence is supported by 50% of the Republican party. Think about that. That is a huge chunk of the American population proclaiming support for a violent overthrow of our Democratic government. That radicalized population believes there was election fraud despite zero evidence (why? because their leaders are saying it, Trump, Republican leadership, Republican congress, local Republican leaders, etc).

3. Trump has not been punished for his attack against this country and Democracy. He continues to be a figurehead as he denies a free and fair election.

4. The Republican party continues to do nothing because they “need” these voters. They would sell their soul, violet their oath of office, and sacrifice American Democracy in order to maintain power. We might get some nice speeches from a few of them, but where is the action?

In 1923 Hitler attempted a coup against a Democratic government. He was arrested for treason but the judge gave him an incredibly light sentence. By 1933 Hitler is in power. Looking at Spain and Japan’s history with coups is also worrying.

Nobody knows what is going to come next.

That should scare you.

We like to think that the FBI and the American Military would resist a coup and do their duty to this country. That is a pretty big assumption given that half of Republicans support this coup. And, after last week’s police response to this insurrection, you might wonder how deep the rot goes. Especially if it turns out that members of the police let violent extremists in the building.

Let’s imagine that a small group of active duty military members attempt a coup. Imagine fifty fully armed active-duty soldiers attacking a state capital or federal building. Or, imagine 3 pilots bombing an American capital. Do you really think that is unlikely given 50% of the Republican party think this coup is “justified”?

If/when this happens it will shatter Americans’ notion of our country (not to mention the power structure of the world). Normal Americans have no clue how many police are associated with white power and extreme right-wing movements. What happens when they find out the military is as badly infiltrated?

What happens next?

Overall my bet is on more violence over the next decade. Expect political assassinations, politically-motivated shootings, and bombings. I think American is in for a rude awakening as they feel the effects of the monster the Right Wing party has created over the last 30 years.

Republicans have ridden the Tiger for 30 years. Now they have to figure out how to get off before it destroys our country. And sadly… I think you will find plenty of Republicans who want to ride the Tiger straight through to a dictatorship. Josh Hawley or Ted Cruz or any number of people who pursue absolute power rather than service to our country.

What would surprise me?

• A Republican party that puts country before party. If they voted to impeach Donald Trump in the Senate that is a bare minimum to start a path to forgiveness.
• The country improving in any substantial way. I.E. health care made affordable, free or subsidized daycare rolled out nationwide, real unemployment insurance to help our unemployed get back on their feet, free or low-cost university to train our citizens in professions for the future, minimum wage increases that give the blue-collar and service industries the respect they deserve, whatever it takes so that cops stop shooting black people, changing what the police handle inside our community, improving our justice system so the poor get competent legal representation, paid vacation for everyone, maternity/paternity for everyone, massive education campaign to understand and discuss the racism in this country, lower military spending to improve our budget over the long term, restoring rules around media that we lifted that created this mess, getting rid of the electoral college, expanding the House to actually represent American, statehood for Puerto Rico, improve immigration and let in a ton more people to grow our economy/power, get our country on green energy for world/national security, smart gun restrictions, and  more in a longer post from 2016.

What do I *hope* for?

• A Republican party that puts country before party.
• I’d like to see Republican voters vote out all the traitors who created this insurrection: Ted Cruz, Hawley, and the massive list of traitors.
• A massive campaign by the FBI to crack down on right-wing terrorism and violence. And, a massive push to remove right-wing extremists and white power nationalist from our police forces and military.
• A massive re-alignment of the Republican party to pull it out of a 30-year descent into madness. There is online talk of Trump and his right-wing extremists forming the “Patriot Party”. I’d like to see that happen and what the result would be for our country.
• I’d really like America to still be a Democracy in 20 years and for it to improve substantially (list above).

Good luck America. Personally, I think you are fucked. If an attempted coup on our nation’s capital and 4,000 people a day dying from a virus do not wake up the Republican voter what will? 

I hate putting money toward Politicians, but it is how the game is played in the USA and until we get it out of the system…

Now that we are ~80 days out I gave money to any of the Senate campaigns I think there is a chance to win. Especially to unseat Mitch. Who got money? Amy McGrath, Barbara Bollier, Alan Gross, Doug Jones, Mark Kelly, John Hickenlooper, Jon Ossoff, Theresa Greenfield, Sara Gideon, Cal Cunningham, Jaime Marrison, and MJ Hegar.

So stupid that this is how we vote in the USA. I basically view this money as a lottery ticket, that maybe something will change compared to the dark path the USA has been going down for 25 years.

I really like Mayor Pete, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren. I’d love to see a Kamala / Pete ticket with Kamala as Pres and Pete as VP and Warren a senior position. I’ve donated a few times to Pete and just chipped in $25 to Kamala and Warren. I was a bit surprised Kamala hasn’t raised more.

I am not sure I can bring myself to vote for Biden… He is way too old to be president and his policies are way out of touch, and most of them are so centrist they are meaningless and just more of the same that caused us to end up in this situation. We need new ideas that many in the party have been talking about. I’d rather see 4 more years of Trump and more people to realize how stupid the GOP is and their war on the poor, science, and governance through data.

I HATE that money is the way we really vote in this country, but no other choice right now.

I feel so sad for our country and for the people that voted for this guy. I hope they learn something. The Republican leadership has consistently pulled their entire organization toward crazy town. Real conservatives who have good ideas and want to build a better country are crying in the corner while the rest of their party screams about who is using what bathroom :(. It is super frustrating.

What is the silver lining of Trump?

I think it will be good for this country to lose the narrative that we are the greatest country on earth. I think it will be fantastic for Americans to get a kick in the face and realize that we have lost the lead in so many areas compared to other countries (so fucking many). I think we will be much better as a people/nation if we feel we are the underdogs and have to actually fight for what and who WE are. We like competition, we just forgot we had to be competitive…

Trump is the epitome of everything I hate about this country. A narcissistic selfish individual who thinks he is self-made but is not in anyway self-made. Someone who believes his opinions = science. Someone who loves gaudy shitty stuff. And, he is the worst type of leader who plays to our fears. This is a terrifying time as the current world order is built on American leadership and American security guarantees. When you lack leadership in a country that is the backdrop of security in the world, historically conflict has followed.

It makes me think of this hilarious Louis CK skit about white people and how the future is going to treat us :).

“I don’t want to go into the future to find out what happens to white people, we are going to pay hard for this shit. We are not going to just fall from #1 to #2, they are going to hold us down and fuck us in the ass forever, and we totally deserve it. But for now, weeeeeeeeeee!”

Seems kinda similar for Americans, especially depending on if we get our shit together and fight global warming before WE destroy the planet for humans.

It is now real.

Somehow a man who lacks the character or ethics to manage a McDonalds is the president of the United States of America despite losing by 3 million votes. This is the end of a long winding road caused by the Republican party being hijacked and held hostage by an anti-fact anti-intellectual movement. America is asleep in a puddle of tears as the “American Dream” slips even further from being a unifying vision for our country. One thing is certain, this is going to be a very interesting period in history.

Where is America headed?

I am still trying to be optimistic and give him a chance. But so far he has further solidified my opinion he lacks moral character and wisdom. I am hopeful that we as a country will get a few things out of this: move the USA to a territorial tax system for business/personal, smart corporate tax reform, and kill off the common core. I am incredibly afraid he is going to try to tear down the American safety net and hurt a lot of people (ie, social security, healthcare, public education, a minimum wage tied to inflation). I am also afraid he is going to cut taxes for the wealthy and increase inequality. I hope he passes something to empower more people to go to college or some type of post-secondary training (I’d love tuition to be capped at 20% of poverty levels or something).

Update… Week 1 does not bode well for the future of this country. Historically we have a long history of uninformed uneducated voters making bad decisions on the right and the left of the political spectrum. That makes me feel “good” about that situation as you can never say that democracy is powered by educated voting. The problem I am trying to get my head around is I am not aware of any situation in American history where a group is set on tearing down government entirely and then saying “look it doesn’t work”. Or had such a blatant disregard for science, expertise, and truth. I am really scared/curious if the USA will emerge stronger once the backlash hits, or if somehow this extreme right group can continue to brainwash uninformed uneducated voters to keep voting for them. I am very hopeful this is the beginning of the end and that in 10 years we will have a better safety net for citizens. I really don’t want to see WW3, a global depression, or a global trade war (which would probably cause a global depression).

I highly recommend this great article by Bill Gates on why inequality matters. It is a summary of his thought after reading Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Here is a summary from the Economist too.

I agree that taxation should shift away from taxing labor. It doesn’t make any sense that labor in the United States is taxed so heavily relative to capital. It will make even less sense in the coming years, as robots and other forms of automation come to perform more and more of the skills that human laborers do today.

I would love to see a move in the USA towards a VAT tax, similar to Singapore or the Uk or Canada. You tax luxury goods and other types of consumption, and lower taxes on hiring labor. It will be interesting to see if anything like this happens…

Find out in this great article by Michael Lewes entitled Obama’s Way. Honestly it’s amazing anyone wants to do that job.

A while back President Obama was giving a speech somewhere and stumbled while delivery of line and said:

“If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business—you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”

The “that” in that line was the roads and bridges, but when delivered sounded like he was referring to the business. IE, you didn’t build that business. Republicans have used this in ads and as a theme. This is very similar to something Elizabeth Warren said a while back too:

“I think the basic notion is right. Nobody got rich on their own. Nobody. People worked hard, they build a business, God bless, but they moved their goods on roads the rest of us helped build, they hired employees the rest of us helped educate, they plugged into a power grid the rest of us helped build,”

So why does this annoy the hell out of me?

Because it’s true! The United States is the greatest business platform in the world right now. And I’m lucky enough to be able to launch my business on that platform.

The USA is like the app platform you use with your smart phone. Apple/Google provide the hardware infrastructure that delivers your product to consumers. The USA provides the road, power, and other infrastructure that make commerce possible. Apple/Google provide the software that runs those apps and the standards that enable a good playing field. The USA provides the standards through the FDA, Health Department, FBI, etc to provide a good playing field to business. Apple/Google take ~30% to cover that infrastructure, and so does the USA (less actually).

I totally understand and love the independent vibe, its part of what makes us Americans. That raw wild freedom that is our hero story, the American who goes west, who rides off into the dark wilderness to tame, build, and master. Who creates something out of nothing. I personally have an incredible addiction to this image, it is a struggle for me to find and develop a community because I so value being highly independent.

BUT… It’s simply not true. The modern global world is one that is built on everyone’s strengths and is interwoven beyond everyone’s comprehension.

I’m a business owner and entrepreneur.
I work my ass off to create and built my business.
But, I didn’t build this all by myself.

PS.
Each year I pay taxes and invest in the American system. I’m not happy with a lot of the regulations on small businesses, and a lot of the licenses that states create, but it is idiotic to imply you are building this on your own. I’m embarrassed for Republicans, the Republican party used to have good ideas, I used to like parts of their platform, just like I only like part of the Democratic platform. But in the last 10 years the Republican party has jumped into the crazy pool. This really sucks because there is no real debate on a macro level any longer. And I find that worrisome as there are some really important macro problems that need to be solved. But the choice in most national elections now is to vote for crazy idiots who don’t say anything but soundbites, or the Democrats who are floundering because they have no one to debate real ideas with. Eeek.

Loving this quote I found in a book I was reading:

The patent system changed this, secured to the inventor for a limited time exclusive use of his inventions, and thereby added the fuel of interest to the fire of genius in the discovery and production of new and useful things.

From the book The Most Powerful Idea in the World: A Story of Steam, Industry, and Invention. One of the best books I’ve read so far this year. Read a review at the New York Times.

PS. Abraham Lincoln received Patent #6,469 for “A Device for Buoying Vessels Over Shoals” on May 22, 1849.

I will miss you Kim Jong, you were a crazy fucker and it was one of my dreams to drink and party with you. Hopefully your sons are a million times less crazy and the people of North Korea get some hope (and some food).

And, I want to start a clothing line called “Kim Jong, KJ!” one day. Because everyone should believe they are why the sun rises.

Still super busy so can’t post much but I highly recommend this article on how to grow rich using a charter city idea. Very cool idea built on it’s success in history.

A great idea and I can’t type more as I’m super busy but you should check it out! Read The American Nations Plan… This is a great first step!